Even though sports betting is always speculative, you should let chance play as small a role as possible in your bets. We’ll show you how to do that and what you should pay attention to when placing your bets.
Analyse betting info before betting
Various statistics can give you an outlook on the outcome of a match and should be the basis of your research before placing a bet. The most important indicator is of course the table. It not only shows how successful the teams, or an athlete have been in the season so far, but also gives you a lot of additional information, for example, who scored how many goals or how often they drew. Tables can often be divided into a home and away table. Some clubs look like they have changed in the role of the guest and only score in front of their home crowd.
In addition, you should also look at season-long statistics. This is especially helpful if there have already been many encounters between two opponents in the past. Sometimes teams have a real fear opponent that regularly makes them stumble. All these aspects are considered by the betting providers in their odds. That’s why you should be just as disciplined with the statistics in advance. Here you can find tips for more self-discipline.
Important betting info:
- Table (including all data such as goal difference or home and away strength)
- Market values of the teams
- Direct comparison from past matches
- Pay attention to the conditions
- Pay attention to the general conditions
Statistics may give you a basic impression of the balance of power between two teams or athletes. But beyond that, there are many other factors that determine whether a team wins or loses. Sometimes a change of coach brings fresh wind into a team, sometimes the loss of a key player weighs heavily. Even the weather can favour the playing style of a particular team. In tennis, the court surface is of great importance. To list all the factors would go beyond the scope of this article, and in the end, you need both experience and a certain feeling for cause and effect in the respective sport.
Important influencing factors:
- Form curve
- Injuries like muscle hardening
- Stress on players
- Mood in the team (Is there unrest, change rumours or a change of coach?)
- Expectations (Is a team under particular pressure? How did they handle it in the past?)
- Money management
No matter what your betting goals are, you should always plan a fixed budget for sports betting. Exactly how much money you want to spend is up to you. However, never bet money that you need elsewhere to live. Tips on how to save money can be found here. Also, as a beginner, you should bet with fixed stakes that do not exceed one to two percent of your betting budget. The more risk you take, the smaller your bets should be.
Among experienced sports betting professionals, the principle of value betting is widespread. They try to determine the probability of a correct tip themselves and then compare this probability with the odds of a betting provider. If there is now a large difference between the two valuations, the odds of the betting provider is apparently set too high or too low.
There are many approaches how exactly the bettor calculates his subjective probability and from which difference to the odds he should place the bet. Mostly, value bets are in the range of betting odds between 1.60 to 2.50 (betting odds from the betting provider) and exclude bets on clear favourites.
Do you want to know if a bet is a potentially profitable value bet? Then ask yourself, considering all the information available to you, how likely you think your bet is to succeed. Set a percentage value.
You can get help in deciding with this formula: (odds x your probability in percent) / 100. If the result is greater than one, you should place the bet. If the value is less than 1, it is better not to make the bet.
Betting with the Kelly system aims at the optimal amount of the stake for sports betting. With the Kelly formula, for example, advanced bettors want to combine general money management and the subjective assessment of the probability of winning.
The Kelly formula is betting budget x (your probability in percent x odds -1) / (odds -1) = your betting stake.
The result includes your general betting budget as well as your subjective assessment from value betting. However, this can also quickly result in relatively high stakes, which is why many bettors weaken the Kelly formula and only actually bet half, a quarter or an eighth of the amount calculated in this way.
6 big mistakes in sports betting
There are many stumbling blocks in sports betting that can ruin your strategy and rob you of your money in the long run. But with our sports betting tips, you can avoid common beginner mistakes.
You place your bet too early
The best time to place a bet is debatable. It all depends on the situation. Some betting companies lower their odds shortly before the game starts and sometimes a bet on the favourite only becomes really lucrative at half-time. The fact is, however, that by placing your bet early, you are only tying yourself unnecessarily to the outcome of the game. Once you have placed a bet, you often cannot change or cancel it. If a top performer gets injured during training, it is already too late. Good time management is crucial. You should be patient and never place your bet more than a day or two in advance.
Bet on combi bets
If you bet on combi bets, you reduce the probability of making a profit enormously. The risk is high that even one of your bets will not work out. Combi bets are therefore rather an additional thrill that the betting providers offer their customers. With them, regular profits can only be achieved very rarely in the long run. So don’t be tempted by the greed for high profits and rather stick to single bets.
You are influenced by emotions
In sports betting, it is perfectly normal to have a little run of bad luck from time to time. In such cases, however, you should remain calm. Especially beginners often want to compensate their lost bet by increasing the next bet. In the long run, however, you will only incur higher losses. For beginners, fixed bets are usually suitable, which should not exceed one to two percent of your total betting budget.
Also, don’t be tempted to favour a club or athlete out of sympathy. You should be able to switch off emotions as good as possible when betting regularly. Tips for the right handling of emotions can be found here.
With a cash-out you can have your winnings paid out while a game is still in progress. Many bettors use this function if a game event (such as an injury or a red card) puts the betting success in danger.
Actually, the principle of having your winnings paid out ahead of time sounds good. But unfortunately, you don’t get your full winnings when cashing out. You have to pay for your lack of courage. If you use the cash-out function permanently, you often reduce your winnings unnecessarily. So only use it in absolutely exceptional cases.
Always bet only on favourites
The odds for betting on the favourite are high. Therefore, if you regularly bet on the frontrunner, you will win the vast majority of your bets. What sounds good at first glance, however, also involves problems. Because the odds for favourite bets are extremely low. So, you will only make small profits and every now and then the underdog will win. In these cases, however, you will lose your entire stake.
There is nothing wrong if you are convinced of the performance of a top team and therefore bet on its victory. However, you should not stiffen on the pure favourite betting. Also, never forgo a thorough analysis, no matter how clear the balance of power between two teams may seem.
Losing track of sports betting
When betting on sports, you should not only keep an overview of the sporting events, but also of your profits and losses. If you lose more money than you win in the long run, you should change your betting strategy or your analysis in advance. However, if you don’t even notice your losses, you won’t analyse your mistakes either.
A budget book helps you to keep track of your finances in everyday life. Such a book can also be useful for sports betting. Write down your bets, winnings and losses as well as the type and course of your bets. In this way, after a certain period of time, you will be able to find and eliminate one or two mistakes in your bets.
Find the right betting provider
Sports betting providers are a dime a dozen. Most of them lure you with high odds and welcome bonuses. However, the choice of a betting provider should also depend on other factors. First, ask yourself what features you value in a bookmaker and what kind of bets you want to use. For some, good customer service accessibility is important, or a user interface that is as intuitive as possible on the website. Others absolutely want to use a live streaming offer for their live bets.
The decision which betting provider you choose is therefore highly individual. Tips for easier decision-making can be found here. Often it even makes sense to open accounts with several sports betting providers in order to take advantage of the respective benefits. Besides, you can also get several bonuses.
In general, however, you should pay attention to a certain seriousness of the provider and also to the betting odds that are important for you. The better the odds are, the more you will win with your right tips. By the way, the big advantage of online betting providers compared to classic betting shops is the quick comparability of odds. Moreover, you can place sports bets around the clock from different devices.
Sports betting: Bonus of the betting providers
Many betting providers for sports betting give you as a customer a bonus as a gift. Sometimes the bookmakers entice new customers with 100 to 200 percent on the first deposit. However, these welcome bonuses are usually capped at 100 euros. You cannot withdraw the bonus directly either. It is linked to the condition that you place a minimum amount as a bet beforehand. Often, a certain minimum quota is also specified for this.
Another form of bonus are so-called free bets or free bets, where you can place a bet even without making a deposit. Sometimes you can even wager an amount once without the risk of a loss. Such a bonus may seem attractive. However, you should not make your choice of betting provider solely dependent on this, but also take other criteria into account when making your decision.